Emerging political crisis

Political tensions are mounting between the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI)-led federal government and the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) government in Sindh after the Centre has placed the name of Sindh Chief Minister Syed Murad Ali Shah and some ministers on the Exit Control List (ECL) as it has already brought ministerial and administrative work in the province to a halt.The PPP and the CM have rejected the Joint Investigation Report (JIT) report on money laundering and fake accounts, which if proved, will have serious consequences for both PPP leadership and Sindh government. If proved otherwise, it will raised serious questions about the accountability process, as the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) has already rejected the the process against former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif as biased and one-sided. So, it is either sham democracy or sham accountability.The Sindh CM, on the eve of the visit of Prime Minister Imran Khan to Karachi about a month back, had told me that due to the fear of the NAB and FIA, government officers were not willing to approve files. During his 18 to 20-minute meeting with the PM in the presence of Governor Imran Ismail, the premier raised questions about his relationship with the governor, and Murad Ali Shah replied that he had no problem with him as long as he did not interfere in government functioning which includes law and order.Now, two days back the governor held a long meeting with the PM and discussed law and order in the last six weeks and also possible political options in case of political crisis in the aftermath of the JIT report on fake accounts and SC hearing on Monday.The meeting was followed by speculations about Governor's rule in Sindh and some PTI leaders started demanding CM's resignation and even talking about “In-house” change in Sindh, if the top PPP leadership was arrested.The statement of Prime Minister Imran Khan on Friday about money laundering and a hue and cry in Sindh also hinted at a possible alternative plan under discussion at the PM House or within the PTI high command.The last JIT on the Panama case had resulted in the fall of former PM Nawaz Sharif, who now stands disqualified and convicted. After the second JIT, It will either be the case of “sham democracy” under the PPP and the PML-N or “sham accountability” by the NAB and FIA, but, for that we have to wait for some time as the legal course will take time.The final outcome of the trial would also determine the future of PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari as the final fate of Nawaz Sharif would also set the tone for his daughter, Maryam Nawaz. Interestingly, the Supreme Court, has also fixed the Asghar Khan case for Monday along with the fake account case.The Asghar Khan case, to me, is a mother of all corruption cases as it laid the foundation of corruption in politics in the late 80’s and shows how money was used to rig the 1990 elections, which the SC has already declared as rigged. It can be a litmus test for “uniform and fair” accountability.Prime Minister Imran Khan's government may not be facing any immediate threat from the opposition or for that matter, from any quarter and perhaps, that has given him strength to go all-out and adopt an aggressive posture, but will it create political and economic stability or caos?Year 2019 will be quite crucial for both government and opposition as not only the fate of Nawaz Sharif and Asif Zardari will be decided or at least reach some kind of conclusion but, it would also be a year for local bodies elections, which would be most crucial in Punjab and the PTI knows its weakness on the front as it has alreadyreceived aftershocks in recently held by-elections on seats vacated in some union councils.The opposition's inside and outside strategy would also be exposed in the next few months and, so would be PTI's counterstrategy and policies. While the trial of Nawaz Sharif would surely be over in the next three to six months, the fake account case may take a much longer as a formal trial has not started yet. Opposition parties also know that by March 2020, they would lose majority in the Senate to the PTI-led coalition. So, whatever pressure they can build inside the National Assembly and the Senate would in 2019.It is true that mainstream opposition parties, like the PPP and the PML-N, are still reluctant to form an alliance but they have the capacity to cause serious problems for the PTI in the Parliament. But, any political adventure on part of the federal government in Sindh could be counterproductive for the PTI and increase the political temperature, something which could benefit the PPP instead of the PTI. So, the best option for Imran Khan and his team would be to let the law take its course.The past experience of political adventures in Sindh brought adverse results whether it was in the case of the late Jam Sadiq Ali, Syed Muzaffar Hussain Shah, Liaquat Jatoi or Arbab Ghulam Rahim, who formed the government through alleged political engineering but could not dent PPP's strongholds. The two JIT reports, one on the Panama case and the other on the money laundering case have raised some very serious questions about the way both PML-N and PPP have governed the country.So, when the law is taking its course despite PPP and PML-N reservations on the accountability process for being “selective” and the highest court is taking care of the process, why the PTI leaders are getting so ambitious that they have even started talking about forming the government in Sindh?It will be interesting to see as how long the situation will last and what would be the strategy and counterstrategy of the PTI and the opposition on one hand, and the federal and Sindh governments, on the other hand.Monday's proceedings in the SC will set the tone for both, the judicial process and political temperature, which is likely to go up on New Year.The writer is a senior columnist and analyst of GEO, The News and JangTwitter: @MazharAbbasGEO

from The News International - Islamabad http://bit.ly/2R0mxjC